Turkyie’s Laboratory of Democracy
Will Turkyie’s Citizens Restore their Nation’s Democracy this Month?
This essay from Civic Way’s global democracy series was co-written by Bob Melville and Will Arrington. Bob is the founder of Civic Way, a nonprofit dedicated to good government, and a management consultant with over 45 years of experience. Will is an advisor to Civic Way with a Bachelor of Arts in Political Science from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Will, a former Peace Corps volunteer, works in Washington DC.
Civic Way’s Comparative Democracy Series
The world’s democracies vary widely. Some have strong central governments, some federated structures. Some have an independent president and some a parliamentary form. Some retain vestiges of a ceremonial monarchy. Some democracies have deep cultural or historical roots. Some spring from pivotal historic events. Most evidence their commitment to democracy through a formal constitution.
All democracies face comparable challenges. To overcome such foreseeable trials, many nations refine their constitutions, laws and norms. Learning about these changes, and the risks they were meant to abate, can help us strengthen our own democracy. And, in the case of autocracies, like Turkyie’s, we can become more familiar with the actions to avoid.
An Introduction to Turkyie[i]
Turkiye lies on the Anatolian Plate at the crossroads of Asia and Europe. It abuts two major fault lines and eight nations[ii]. It’s 85 million people live on over 302,000 square miles (slightly larger than the State of Texas). It is continental Europe’s most populous nation. Its official language is Turkish, and ethnic Turks comprise 75 percent of the population. Kurds represent the biggest minority.
Turkieye has transformed its agrarian economy into one of the region’s most diverse economies. The 19th largest economy by nominal GDP, and the 11th largest by PPP. Its per capita income remains low (79th) and its recent inflation has been staggering (over 80 percent in 2022). Still, Turkiye’s economy is expected to keep growing and retain its place as one of the region’s leading economies
Turkieye has a turbulent history. Its rivalry with Greece includes bitter disputes over Aegean Sea islands and Turkish separatists in Northern Cyprus. Its relations with Armenia have suffered from its denial of the Ottoman Empire’s genocide against Armenians.
Arising from the ashes of the Ottoman Empire in 1923[iii], Turkieye became the Near East’s first democracy. Since then, it has experienced political instability and coup attempts, the most recent in 2016. It’s handling of migrants and its Kurdish minority has caused tensions. It is a NATO member and a European Union candidate, but such turmoil—and signs of a rising autocracy—is troubling.
On February 6th, Turkieye suffered a horrific disaster. A 7.8-magnitude earthquake destroyed over 100,000 buildings—and many towns—and took over 50,000 lives. Within weeks, a 6.3-magnitude quake and over 6,000 aftershocks followed. The lives of an estimated 15 million Turks were disrupted and at least 1.5 million were left homeless.
The nation’s shock and sorrow soon gave way to questions. Were lax oversight and shoddy construction responsible? Where did the earthquake taxes ($38 billion) go? Did corruption and patronage weaken the government’s relief efforts? With the national election only weeks away, would the disaster be the long-awaited catalyst for saving Turkiye’s beleaguered democracy?
Turkyie’s Government Structure
Turkyie, at least on paper (see the 1982 version of its Constitution), is a democracy with three co-equal branches of government. It is anything but.
Executive branch – The President is the head of state and government and commander in chief. The Prime Minister position was abolished in 2017[iv]. At that time, the roles of president, prime minister, party chairman and de facto central-bank governor were merged into one position.
Legislative branch – The unicameral Grand National Assembly (the Parliament) has 600 members of which a simple majority is required for enacting laws and a three-fifths majority for amending the constitution or approving a treaty.
Judicial branch – The judicial system has three broad general law courts—civil, criminal and administrative. The four highest courts are the Constitutional Court, Court of Cassation, Council of State and Court of Jurisdictional Disputes. The Constitutional Court reviews the legality of laws. The Court of Cassation is the final criminal appellate court and Council of State the final administrative court. The Court of Jurisdictional Disputes resolves inter-court disputes.
How independent are these three branches? Not much. President Erdoğan rules all three with an iron fist. Since 2016, he has overhauled key ministries (including the central bank and foreign ministry), replaced thousands of civil servants with loyalists and seized control of public funds. Through his political machine, Erdoğan effectively controls the Parliament and dictates judicial appointments.
Unlike the US, Turkiye has a unitary government not a federalist system. The central government, based in the capital of Ankara, oversees Turkiye’s 81 provinces. Within the provinces, there are 973 districts. Under the districts, there are cities and villages with their own powers. The provincial and local governments are essentially wards of the national government.
Turkyie’s Democracy
Turkiye’s democracy is in peril, if not already gone. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit’s report, Democracy Index 2022, Turkiye ranks poorly. A hybrid regime with a score of 4.34 (of 10). An overall rank of 103rdamong 167 nations, the worst in Western Europe by far. An abysmal score for civil liberties (2.07). And Turkiye’s score has steadily fallen since 2012 when it peaked at 5.76.
In 2022, the Freedom House gave Turkiye a score of 32 (of 100), earning it a Not Free designation. Why? Erdoğan’s grip on all three branches. His use of the Supreme Election Council (YSK) to influence election results. His efforts to intimidate or co-opt political rivals, replace civil servants with political loyalists and force media outlets to echo government propaganda. The government’s oppression of minorities and favorable treatment of Sunni Muslims.
Other noteworthy features of Turkiye’s disappearing democracy include:
Voting – Sufferage is universal for all citizens aged 18 or older. Voting is seen as a civic duty, but citizens are neither required to vote nor subject to penalties for not voting. There have been recent allegations of abuses like proxy voting and YSK favortism in overseeing elections.
Elections – Elections for Parliament and President are held simultaneously every five years. In the past 20 years, most elections have occurred in late spring or early summer per decree. Snap elections have been called, and election dates have been moved, for political purposes.
Campaign financing – Parties receive public funds based on their share of votes in the last public election. Corporate donations are allowed, but foreign donations are forbidden.
Executive branch – With the 2017 constitutional amendments, Turkyie adopted a strong executive. The elected President performs all executive functions (the Prime Minister position was eliminated). The President appoints executive officials without parliamentary input or approval.
Legislative branch – Members of Parliament (Deputies) are elected to serve five-year terms.
Legislative representation – Deputies are elected in 87 electoral districts[i] using the D’Hondt party-list proportional representation method. There is a ten percent vote threshold for party representation in the Parliament.
Judicial branch – Trials are decided by judges, not juries. Judges and prosecutors are appointed by the Supreme Council of Judges and Prosecutors which has come under Presidential influence.
Term limits – The President may serve up to two consecutive five-year terms. However, the Parliament may effectively make the President eligible for a third term by calling for early elections. There are no term limits for legislators. Judges serve until the age of 65.
Removal process – The President can be removed from office by the Supreme Court[ii]. Deputies enjoy full immunity but may be expelled from office by a majority vote of Parliament. Judges cannot be removed under any circumstances.
Turkiye has a multiparty system, with five major parties. The right-wing Justice and Development Party (AKP) controls 285 of 600 parliamentary seats, 15 of 30 metro governments and 742 of 1,355 cities. Its ally, the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) holds 48 legislative seats. Together, the center-left Republican People’s Party (CHIP) and People’s Democratic Party (HDP) control 190 parliamentary seats, 14 metro governments and 342 cities. The center-right Good Party (İyi) holds 36 parliamentary seats.
There are 46 other parties. Nine holding parliamentary seats (less than 20 in total), 22 eligible for parliamentary elections but without seats and 15 registered but relatively dormant. Parties (or coalitions) must win at least ten percent of the vote for parliamentary seats[iii]. The Constitutional Court may ban parties for violating the constitution. These minor parties have little influence.
The 2018 constitutional amendments undermined the judiciary’s independence. The President and Parliament now appoint most members of the Board of Judges and Prosecutors (HSK), the body making judicial appointments. This has facilitated the replacement of over 4,200 judges and prosecutors with allies. Political prosecutions, especially for HDP members[iv] have increased but the Constitutional Court has overturned some political convictions.
The government’s campaign to purge independent media has been multi-faceted and relentless. Restricting press passes. Detaining journalists. Fining, censoring, prosecuting and shuttering independent media outlets. Blocking or censoring websites and social media platforms. Using social-media posts to investigate presidential insults. Criminalizing the dissemination of what the government deems “false information.” Not surprisingly, most media are government friendly.
Government corruption is endemic. The improper funneling of public contracts to Erdoğan allies. The unaccountable disbursement of public funds. The brazen seizure of businesses and NGOs and subsequent use of trustees to control billions of dollars of seized assets. All facilitated by weak anticorruption laws, agencies and enforcement mechanisms.
Turkyie’s Recent Political Landscape
Since 2002, Turkyie’s politics have been dominated by Erdoğan and his insatiable thirst for autocratic rule. He has used everything at his disposal—charisma, talent, intimidation, censorship and the government—to survive elections, protests, scandals and coups.
In 2001, Erdoğan founded the AKP. During the 2002 election campaign, voters blamed the ruling party for the 1999 earthquake response and 2001 financial crash. The AKP won about two-thirds of all parliamentary seats. Erdogan won, too, and has served as Prime Minister or President ever since.
Since 2016—and a failed coup attempt—President Erdoğan has regularly employed authoritarian tactics. His 2017 referendum enabled him to amass executive powers and alter electoral rules to his advantage. He fired over 150,000 civil servants and detained 50,000. He coopted the legislative and judiciary branches, and military. He bullied political opponents and immobilized independent media.
In 2018, snap elections were held under a state of emergency[v]. Erdoğan won a second term with over 52 percent. The CHP candidate won over 30 percent, but no other won ten percent. The People’s Alliance, the AKP-MHP coalition, won 53 percent and 344 parliamentary seats. The Nation’s Alliance, a coalition of the CHP, İyi and two smaller parties, won 34 percent and 189 seats. The other major opposition party, the HDP, campaigned alone and won 11 percent (67 seats).
The 2019 municipal elections told a different story. Opposition parties won control of most large cities, including Ankara and Istanbul. Since then, the government has arrested several opposition leaders, replaced many HDP mayors with “trustees” and obstructed many CHP mayors—including the Mayor of Istanbul—from performing their duties.
On May 14, 2023, on the eve of Turkyie’s centenary, President Erdoğan and his AKP face their toughest electoral test in 20 years. Voters are furious about the earthquake, inflation and broken promises. However, Erdoğan and AKP should not be counted out. The opposition parties remain splintered[vi]. The government could manipulate the election. And Erdoğan could challenge—or refuse to accept—the election outcome. In any event, the future of Turkyie’s democracy is at stake.
Possible Lessons for the US
Turkiye has become a cautionary tale for all democracies. As summarized below, it offers a lesson about happens when a nation embraces authoritarianism.
Voting – Turkiye has a high voter turnout rate compared to other nations, but the rate could be inflated by electoral improprieties such as proxy voting.
Elections – Elections are no longer considered free and fair. The Supreme Electoral Council (YSK), which oversees elections, is largely AKP-appointed and has deferred to the AKP[vii].
Executive branch – The absolute power of the Presidency undermines accountability.
Legislative branch – Members of opposition parties have faced authoritarian tactics from the ruling party, including expulsion and imprisonment.
Legislative representation – The ten percent vote threshold for party representation impedes the rise of new parties, growth of small parties and potential benefits of political pluralism.
Judicial branch – As President Erdoğan’s influence over judicial appointments has increased, the judiciary’s independence has been eroded.
Term limits – The third term loophole increases the odds of regime entrenchment.
Removal process – The lack of a judicial removal mechanism solidifies any political regime’s hold on power. A lower mandatory retirement age would help alleviate this problem.
While never a thriving democracy, Turkiye once had many attributes of one. However, under Erdogan’s 20-year reign, it has devolved from a democracy to an autocracy. Even if the opposition parties prevail later this month, reform will not be easy.
Still, Turkish citizens have an opportunity to take the first step toward restoring their democracy. It could be their last.