The Death of Democracy – Part 2

Shouldn’t We Be Asking What Comes Next?

Welcome to the Civic Way journal, our quick take on the relevance of breaking news to America’s future governance. The author, Bob Melville, is the founder of Civic Way, a nonprofit dedicated to good government, and a management consultant with over 45 years of experience improving public agencies.

Many forms of Government have been tried … it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried …

– Winston Churchill

Many pundits have been contemplating our nation’s post-democracy fate. The dystopian warnings of unleashed authoritarianism. The chilling predictions of a totalitarian church state. The inevitable references to 1984 and the Handmaiden’s Tale. 

If America forsakes its democracy (an increasingly plausible outcome), what will replace it?

We will still have government, but what kind? Will federalism survive? How will power and roles be allocated among national, state and local governments? Will independent executive, legislative and judicial branches be preserved? How will public safety and health threats be regulated?

If authoritarianism replaces democracy, how far will it go? How will our leaders be elected, and by whom? If we have elections, how will they be run? If we have a constitution, what rights will be safeguarded? Will we still have the rule of law? To what extent will governing power be concentrated in the hands of one office?

Will we become what political scientists call an anocracy, a blend of democratic and autocratic features? A guided democracy that permits some political opposition, but no means for righting wrongs. A system that sanctions nominal elections and hollowed out institutions, but abides racism and violence. A regime like Burma, Nigeria, Thailand or Uganda.

It is hard to predict what will happen, but we need to try. If we don’t take the time to think about our potential fate, we will find it virtually impossible to shape it.

Fortunately, we don’t have to rely solely on our imaginations to visualize what might replace our democracy. We have real-life examples here and around the world.

Let’s start with the US. Our democratic mythology notwithstanding, we are no stranger to autocratic or authoritarian government. One that resembles current governments in form, but with a power-hungry executive. Disdain for checks and balances like legislatures, courts and civil servants. The crushing of political competition. More cronyism and patronage. Less accountability and freedom.

US history offers many cautionary tales of autocratic governance (or at least government with authoritarian tendencies). New York City’s infamous William “Boss” Tweed. Louisiana under Huey Long (and more recently Edwin Edwards). The City of Chicago under the first Mayor Daley. The City of Detroit under Kwame Kilpatrick. The State of New York under Andrew Cuomo. And, of course, ex-President Trump who gave us, among other things, January 6th and America’s “Reichstag moment.” 

The US also has two large states with modern day prototypes of autocratic government—the State of Florida and the State of Texas.

In Florida, Governor DeSantis has exhibited some autocratic tendencies. Unlike the former President, DeSantis is focused, disciplined and diligent. First elected in 2018, he has moved deliberately to consolidate his power. Using the playbook of autocrats elsewhere, he has demonized his opponents, polarized voters and bullied legislators to carry out his agenda.

A likely presidential candidate, DeSantis has worked hard to raise his national profile. Attacking public health mandates and manipulating pandemic data. Imposing vague, but ominous restrictions on public teachers. Empowering parents to sue school districts (at district expense). Attacking the state’s largest employer (Disney). Creating a state elections police force. Forcing an extreme partisan gerrymandering scheme. Censuring university professors. Appointing sycophants behind closed doors.

The State of Texas under Governor Abbott (another state politician fancying national office). Spewing racist and xenophobic rhetoric. Empowering citizens to file lawsuits against other citizens. Defying federal law by ordering state troopers to enforce federal immigration law. Diverting federal Covid-19 relief funds into ill-conceived border schemes (Operation Lone Star). Stopping commercial traffic on bridges for duplicative inspections. Promoting secession and the disobedience of federal law.

In other states dominated by right-wing extremists, some want to legalize the overturning of future elections. How aggressive will such states be? Will they take the offensive like the pre-Civil War South when it tried to expand slavery (e.g., 1854 Kansas-Nebraska Act)? Or will they be content with a more defensive strategy, like Southern states during the Jim Crow era when they repeatedly invoked the state’s rights mantra to retain segregation.  

We should not assume that the Republican Party has a monopoly on such impulses. To illustrate, this month, the North Carolina State Board of Elections voted 3-2 along party lines to oppose the certification of the Green Party as an official party (the Democrats opposed certification). While this action is trivial compared to other anti-democracy actions, any time politicians try to reduce competition they are exhibiting an authoritarian impulse.

We also can learn from other nations. Brazil, where President Bolsonaro has challenged the legitimacy of elections, urged more military oversight, encouraged citizens to buy more guns and primed the pump for post-election riots. Saudi Arabia, where Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman directs the suppression of women’s rights, imprisonment, exile and execution of dissidents and control of state-supported media. China, Iran, North Korea, Russia and Venezuela where democracy never flourished. Other nations like Turkey where the promise of democracy has faded.

Many believe that Hungary offers a more likely possibility for the US. Under Prime Minister Orbán, Hungary has used entirely legal means to replace a once-vibrant democracy with what Orbán calls a “Christian democracy.” Since his 2010 election, he has used incendiary political rhetoric and extreme gerrymandering to build a personality cult, replace the constitution and consolidate political power.

So what does Hungary look like now? Intrusive central government. Muzzled opposition. Preordained elections. Servile courts. State-controlled media. Unchained cronyism. A militarized border fence. A ban on teaching LGBTQ topics. A national police unit that collects personal data on citizens.

We don’t know what will replace democracy in the US, but the odds are good that it won’t be an improvement. Lives were lost to establish our democracy in the 18th century and to preserve it in the 19th century. In the 20th century, many of our parents and grandparents sacrificed everything to fight totalitarianism.

What will we get if we let our liberal democracy go? The return of patriarchal rule? The dismantling of civic institutions? A sycophantic press? The suppression of opposition? The loss of diversity? The death of accountability? The triumph of mythology over facts? A self-righteous church state? Checkpoint Charlies at every state welcome center? None of the above?

None of us really knows for sure, but do we really want to find out?