Promises, Promises
Which Promises Will Trump Keep the Second Time Around?
Welcome to the Civic Way journal, our quick take on the relevance of current events to America’s future governance. The author, Bob Melville, is the founder of Civic Way, a nonprofit dedicated to good government, and a management consultant with over 45 years of experience improving public agencies.
If a politician found he had cannibals among his constituents, he would promise them missionaries for dinner. – H.L. Mencken
When Donald Trump glided down his golden elevator and ran his first campaign for President, he made so many promises it was hard to know which to take seriously. His most famous promise—to make Mexico pay for a “beautiful wall “on our southern border—met an entirely predictable fate.
This year, in his third presidential run, Trump made even more promises, some of which he pledged to fulfill on his first day in office. They included the following (by topic):
Foreign Affairs – cease aid for Ukraine’s defense and disrupt alliances (e.g., NATO);
Defense – purge the military of officers deemed “unfit for leadership” (insufficiently compliant);
Economy – extend the 2017 tax cuts, pursue additional tax cuts (e.g., tips) and raise tariffs against targeted nations (e.g., Canada, China and Mexico);
Immigration – commence mass deportations, close the southern border, seek funding for border control resources and end birthright citizenship for the children of immigrants;
Education – cut federal funds for schools teaching or allowing the discussion of cultural topics disdained by Trump allies (e.g., racism history, gender transition and sexual orientation);
Health/welfare – reduce ACA health insurance subsidies, and cut healthcare and social programs for the poor and disabled (e.g., Medicaid and food stamps);
Abortion – accelerate efforts to further restrict access to abortion (perhaps via the states);
Energy/climate – increase oil/gas drilling on federal lands, end fuel emission standards, end electric-vehicle incentives, reduce environmental regulations, streamline environmental permitting and repeal the environmental provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act;
Elections – require a national voter identification card for voting;
Cultural – ban transgender women from women’s sports, ban gender-affirming surgeries for minors and “cease the promotion of sex or gender transition.”
Some of Trump’s unscripted campaign rhetoric, while not always framed in promissory terms, has suggested more disturbing action. Pardon those who stormed the US Capitol on January 6, 2021. Harass or prosecute political opponents. Replace civil service employees with political loyalists. Carry out the Project 2025 plan (more on this in an upcoming essay).
Should we take these promises seriously? Many were vague and some mere campaign fodder. If, however, we take them seriously, their potential impacts are ominous. A less stable world order. A more divided, less functional nation. An emasculated Constitution. A debilitated democracy. Rekindled inflation. Higher costs. Gains for the rich and pain for the poor and disabled. Soaring deficits. Restricted healthcare access for women. Sullied natural resources.
Unchallenged and unchecked, a fulfilled Trump agenda could even usher in a dystopian future, a darkness characterized by ignorance, intolerance and xenophobia. As identified by Jane Jacobs in Dark Age Ahead, some of the warning signs are already here. Civic malice, political alienation, public school betrayal, fact denial, economic and racial division, community decay and environmental devastation.
Some commentators hold that our political and legal guardrails will be sufficient to constrain the Trump administration over the next four years. That, like during the first Trump term, the most egregious policies and actions will run afoul of political barriers (legal and procedural). That these guardrails will be strong enough to protect our Constitution, the rule of law and basic liberties. They argue that democracy’s fall is neither imminent nor inevitable.
What are these guardrails? Some are summarized below:
Constitution – without amendment, the US Constitution should prevent or impede some actions (e.g., violating due process or ending birthright citizenship under the 14 Amendment).
Federal statutes – some executive actions, like mass deportations or environmental de-regulation, could require changes to federal laws (e.g., safety net programs, fuel emission standards, electric-vehicle production incentives, Inflation Reduction Act and national voter identification card);
Congress – most actions requiring congressional approval will likely require 218 votes in the House and, due to the filibuster, 60 votes in the Senate;
Federal courts – many executive actions contemplated by the incoming Trump Administration, including those invoking arcane laws like the 1798 Alien Enemies Act, could spur legal challenges in federal courts, where many judges remain devoted to the Constitution;
State and local government – the nation’s state and local governments, in the aggregate, are bigger than the federal government; under federalism, the states and cities defending democracy could band together to protect their citizens from unlawful presidential actions; and
Federal budget – some of the promises, if implemented, could strain the federal budget and threaten the funding of other programs (e.g., mass deportation could cost over $300 billion per year).
Another guardrail is public opinion. Some initiatives could antagonize voters, including Trump voters. For example, some policies could threaten their personal health or freedom (e.g., abortion bans). Other policies could inflate their costs of living (e.g., tariffs and mass deportations). Corruption, like tariff exemptions for Trump’s billionaire donors[i], could convince voters that they have been abandoned. In such cases, many voters will expect Congress to dissent[ii].
One more potential guardrail is capitalism. Large businesses and investors could challenge policies or actions that jeopardize their profits or plans. Mass deportations, for instance, could cause massive labor shortages in industries like agriculture, food processing and construction which, in turn, could galvanize protests from industry leaders. Upending Biden’s climate policy, as ExxonMobil’s CEO, recently warned, could undermine massive corporate investments in clean energy innovations.
Finally, Trump himself could become a MAGA guardrail in one of two ways. First, he could exhibit such deranged behavior that his political support could wane. Second, he could become the unifying leader who made life better for most Americans. After all, by winning the election, he has achieved what he most wanted for himself, an escape from accountability. This unprecedented “Get-Out-Of-Jail Free” card could free him to choose a new, more enlightened path.
But what if such optimism is misplaced? The reality is that Republicans control all three branches of the federal government, including a 6–3 majority on the Supreme Court and narrow partisan majorities in both chambers of Congress. What if federal courts are more sympathetic to Trump’s policies than they were in the first term? What if GOP congressional leaders lack the courage to defy Trump? What if zealots in the next administration are empowered to carry out a mission of extremism and vengeance? In that event, many guardrails will prove fragile.
As we approach another Thanksgiving in America, let’s indulge our optimistic impulses. As noted above, Trump made many promises to win the election. On Election Night, he made his most noble promise, “We’re going to help our country heal.” If he keeps this promise, we will all have cause for gratitude.
This is so clearly outlined. Haven't seen anything this well done to help understand the lay of the land ahead of us. Thank you Civic Way!