Mexico’s Laboratory of Democracy
Will Mexico’s Steady Transition to Democracy Continue?
Welcome to another essay from Civic Way’s series on global democracies. This essay was written by Bob Melville. Bob is the founder of Civic Way, a nonprofit dedicated to good government, and a management consultant with over 45 years of experience.
Civic Way’s Comparative Democracy Series
The world’s democracies come in many forms but face similar challenges.
Some have strong central governments, some federated structures. Some an independent chief executive and some a parliamentary form. Some structural variations are embodied in a nation’s constitution and laws. Others spring from historical, cultural or demographic roots.
To meet the inherent challenges of democracies, many nations refine their constitutions, laws and cultural norms. Learning about these changes, and the risks they were intended to address, can yield promising ideas for preserving and improving our own democracy.
An Introduction to Mexico
Mexico (the United Mexican States), our neighbor to the south, is so much more than an American campaign issue. US demagogues use Mexico as a political pinata—immigration, jobs and drug cartels. Their rhetoric wins votes, but it ignores Mexico’s importance, to us and the world.
With over 126 million residents, Mexico is the world’s 10th most populous nation. It is relatively homogeneous—over 90 percent speak Spanish and nearly ¾ are Catholic. With over 760,000 square miles, it is the world's 13th largest nation. Located in the southern part of the northern hemisphere, it is bordered by the US, Guatemala, Belize, Pacific Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Mexico has the world’s 11th largest economy (by purchasing power parity GDP), but excessive economic inequality. While its most important economic partner is the US, its proximity to the US has contributed significantly to its long-standing struggles with drug-related crime and human trafficking.
Mexico’s transition to democracy is quite recent. Mexico did not become an independent republic until its War of Independence (1810 to 1821). However, after ending three centuries of Spanish rule, it was invaded by the US in 1848. The US seized 55 percent of Mexico’s territory (much of what is now the southwestern US). After adopting a constitution in 1857, Mexico was invaded by France. Mexico eventually repulsed France’s temporary government.
The Mexican Revolution (a civil war inflamed by foreign interference) took place from 1910 to 1920. After the constitutional faction prevailed, Mexico instituted a new constitution and central government. In 1929, the new Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) seized control. The PRI ruled Mexico with an iron fist for the next 70 years until it lost two presidential races—in Mexico’s first free elections—to the conservative National Action Party (PAN) in 2000 and 2006.
Mexico’s Government Structure
As set forth in its 1917 constitution, Mexico is a federal republic. The government is divided into three independent, coequal branches as follows:
Executive branch – The President serves as the chief of state, supervises the executive branch and proposes legislation. There is no Vice President. The cabinet comprises 19 Secretaries appointed by the President (two are subject to Congressional approval[i]).
Legislative branch – The bicameral Congress enacts legislation. The Chamber of Senators (Senate), with 128 members, is the upper chamber. The Chamber of Deputies (Deputies), with 500 members, is the lower chamber. Both chambers are independently elected.
Judicial branch – The federal judiciary system has three levels—the Supreme Court (SCJN), Unitary Circuit Courts (appellate courts) and district courts (trial courts). The SCJN has 11 magistrates. The Federal Electoral Tribunal (TEPJF), an independent arm of the judiciary branch, certifies federal elections and arbitrates federal electoral disputes. The Federal Judicial Council administers all courts except the Supreme Court and Electoral Court.
Mexico’s local government structure comprises 31 states and Mexico City (formerly the federal capital district). The states are further subdivided into nearly 2,500 municipalities. In turn, some municipalities are subdivided into smaller entities like boroughs.
Mexico’s Democracy
The Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index (DI) gives Mexico a 5.57 score (10-point scale). It is ranked 86thamong 167 nations, tied with Ukraine, but below El Salvador. Since 2011, Mexico’s score has dropped steadily (from a high of 6.93), suffering its biggest annual decline in 2021 when it fell from a “flawed democracy” to a “hybrid regime.” Mexico’s score mirrors troubling regional trends.
The Freedom House describes Mexico as “partly free” with 60 of 100 points but calls it an electoral democracy. However, it acknowledges several threats to Mexico’s democracy, such as organized crime, government corruption, human rights abuses and civil liberty violations. Other noteworthy features of Mexico’s democracy include the following:
Voting – All citizens become eligible to vote at the age of 18. Voting is considered a civic obligation, but there are no penalties for not voting. Voter turnout was 63 percent in 2018, but only about 53 percent for the 2021 parliamentary elections.
Elections – National elections are held every three years (three years for Deputies and six years for President and Senate). Gubernatorial elections are staggered every three years.
Campaign financing – Public funds are reserved for federal campaigns (roughly equal to registered voters times 65 percent of the capital’s minimum wage). Of this amount, 70 percent is allocated to parties based on their relative share of votes in the last congressional election and 30 percent is shared equally among all registered parties. Private donations are limited to ten percent of the last presidential campaign’s aggregate expenditures (all parties).
Executive branch – The President is elected by plurality to one six-year term. Presidential candidates must be at least 35 years old, Mexican citizens by birth, and Mexican residents for 20 years or more. They cannot serve as a state governor (or Mexico City mayor”) for six months before the election.
Legislative branch – 300 Deputies are elected by plurality in single-seat constituencies (allocated to states based on population) and 200 by proportional representation to multi-seat districts. 96 Senators are elected in three-seat constituencies (31 states and Mexico City), with two seats awarded to the party with the most votes and one seat to the party with the second most votes, and 32 by proportional representation. 50 percent of Deputies and 49 percent of Senators are women.
Legislative representation – 200 Deputies are elected by proportional representation in five 40-seat districts. To nominate eligible candidates for the 40-seat districts, a party must run candidates in at least 200 of the 300 single-seat districts and win at least two percent of the vote in those elections. The 200 seats are distributed based on each party’s proportional share of the total national votes, subject to some exceptions (e.g., no party’s allocation can exceed eight percent of its national vote share). 32 of the Senate seats are awarded by proportional representation on a nationwide basis.
Judicial branch – SCJN justices are appointed by the President, subject to Senate confirmation. The SCJN is generally regarded as independent, but the justice system is plagued by resource constraints, processing delays, external interference and corruption.
Term limits – The President may only serve one six-year term. Senators may serve up to two consecutive six-year terms and Deputies may serve up to four consecutive three-year terms. The Supreme Court magistrates serve one 15-year term.
Removal process – The impeachment procedure is cumbersome. The president must be charged for “treason … and serious crimes of the common order” and, if found guilty, removed from office. No president has been impeached. A 2019 constitutional amendment enables citizens to recall a president midway through a term by referendum with a simple majority[ii].
Mexico is surprisingly pluralistic considering the PRI’s 20th century dominance. There are at least seven registered national parties, but the following three political parties (in the aggregate) control over 75 percent of total congressional seats.
National Regeneration Movement (MORENA) – a center-left to left-wing party with 47 percent of Senate seats and 40 percent of Chamber of Deputies seats—the current ruling party
National Action Party (PAN) – a conservative party with 19 percent of all Senate seats and 23 percent of Deputy seats
Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) – a center-right party with 10 percent of Senate seats and 14 percent of lower chamber seats—it ruled Mexico during most of the 20th century
The other national political parties with legislative seats include the Labor Party, Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) and Citizens Movement (MC) on the left and the Green Party on the center-right. There are at least 15 nonregistered parties and another 15 or so local parties registered at the state level.
Since 2000, several parties have been competitive. Parties often form coalitions to improve their odds. In the 2021 elections, for example, PAN, PRI and PRD formed an electoral coalition to consolidate the anti-MORENA vote. The anti-MORENA coalition increased its overall share of legislative seats.
The National Electoral Institute (INE) has led Mexico’s transition to democracy since the late 1990s. With strong public support and an annual $706 million budget, it controls voter rolls, supervises elections, counts votes and enforces campaign laws. The INE monitors campaigns and tries to enforce standards. However, its Auditing Unit lacks sufficient resources to rigorously enforce campaign financing laws.
The Federal Electoral Tribunal (TEPJF), an independent arm of the judiciary branch, adjudicates the nation’s electoral practices. It possesses the authority to review the validity of any rulings and acts by electoral authorities under Constitution and relevant laws.
Mexico’ democracy—and free press—faces several threats. Organized crime undermines the authority of public officials, and the credibility of elections. In some regions, cartels extort government funds and neutralize prosecutors. Federal and state elections are plagued by illicit campaign activities, including vote buying. Journalists and candidates are threatened, attacked and killed.
Mexico’s Recent Political Landscape
In 2018, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), the MORENA party leader, won the presidential election with 53 percent of the vote. His closest rival, the candidate representing the PAN, PRD and MC—won only 22 percent. The PRI, the outgoing president’s party, won only 16 percent. MORENA also won a supermajority in Congress, positioning it to seek sweeping legal changes.
In the June 2021 midterm elections, MORENA and its allies—the Workers’ Party (PT) and Green Party (PVEM)—retained their majority in Congress’ lower house (with 278 seats) but lost their supermajority. MORENA won 198 Chamber of Deputies seats. PAN, which led the opposition, won 114 seats, while coalition partners won 85 seats (70 for PRI and 15 for PRD). In 2021, MORENA also won 11 of 15 gubernatorial races—MORENA officials now govern 16 states and Mexico City. However, opposition candidates increased their support among middle-class voters and carried many urban areas and most of Mexico City’s boroughs.
In the meantime, AMLO has become one of Latin America’s most prominent illiberal populists. His “fourth transformation” agenda suggests an affinity for stronger central government. Seizing control of independent agencies and centralizing presidential powers. Empowering and enriching the military. Dismantling electoral authorities (i.e., the INE and TEPJF). Influencing the Supreme Court In late 2022, Congress passed AMLO’s controversial electoral-reform package, strengthening his ability to retain power after his term expires in 2024[iii].
Despite the meddling of the US and other nations, Mexico has largely refrained from foreign affairs. Mexico is a member of the Organization of American States, but, until NAFTA, its bilateral relationships were limited to other western hemisphere countries. If they become more visible on the global stage, will they become better understood—and appreciated—by the US?
Possible Lessons for the US
Mexico has several features which promote democratic and may be worth exploring, such as:
Parties – Seven parties are represented in Congress. Mexico’s pluralism encourages collaboration and coalition-building, especially among the smaller parties.
Voting – Despite reports of fraud and intimidation, voter participation has been respectable[iv]. One reason might be the credibility that the INE and TEPJF have brought to elections.
Elections – Scheduling national elections every three years helps reduce overall campaign costs and may even encourage more voter turnout.
Campaign financing – Publicly funding a portion of political campaign costs and limiting private donations helps reduce overall campaign costs.
Executive branch – Requiring governors to step down at least six months before an election to run for president is one way to improve executive focus on governance.
Legislative branch – The three-year Deputy terms should give them more time to legislate. Multi-seat districts may improve ideological balance and help increase gender diversity in Congress.
Legislative representation – Using proportional representation for 40 percent of the Deputy seats and 25 percent of the Senate seats promotes political pluralism and competitiveness.
Judicial branch – The independent TEPJF offers a potential model for adjudicating electoral disputes, and preserving public faith in election results.
Term limits – The term limits for the President, Senators, Deputies and Supreme Court magistrates should facilitate the infusion of new energy, perspectives and ideas into governance.
Removal process – The recall referendum mechanism provides a reasonable way to expel an office holder for corruption and sustain public support for democracy.
Citizen consultations (referenda) are conducted to obtain voter input on critical issues[v]. However, turnout can be low. For instance, only seven percent of voters participated in a 2021 consultation on whether to initiate criminal investigations into the conduct of the last five presidential administrations.
The INE enjoys an exemplary reputation for overseeing elections. A former US ambassador to Mexico has called it “one of the world’s strongest electoral authorities.” The President’s efforts to dismantle or weaken INE pose a serious threat to Mexico’s democracy.
We cannot perfect our union without perfecting our democracy. To do so, we must not only learn from our own successes and setbacks, but the feats and failures of other nations.