Making DOGE Work for the Country
Reforming the Federal Government is Too Important for Ego-Driven Histrionics
Welcome to the Civic Way journal, our quick take on the relevance of current events to America’s future governance. The author, Bob Melville, is the founder of Civic Way, a nonprofit dedicated to good government, and a management consultant with over 45 years of experience improving public agencies.
It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt. – Mark Twain
Introduction
President-Elect Trump created the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to recommend ways to reform the federal government. Co-chaired by billionaires Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, DOGE is an advisory commission. Musk and Ramaswamy have little government experience, but proven success as entrepreneurs. DOGE is expected to conclude its work by July 4, 2026, the nation’s 250th birthday.
We should welcome an independent review of federal agencies—their missions, operations, regulations, programs and processes. DOGE, by recommending impartial, sensical reforms, could leave a noble legacy. Its ideas could make vital public services cost-effective, and antiquated systems and practices modern. Its work could make the federal culture more people based. And it could produce what we sorely lack, a long-term plan for balancing the federal budget and eliminating the debt.
Nightmare on Pennsylvania Avenue
We face the most predictable economic crisis in history [the US debt]. – Erskine Bowles
Our national debt will likely eclipse $36 trillion any day now. Worse, our Debt-to-GDP ratio, after falling from 119 percent in 1946 to 31 percent in 1981, is over 120 percent today[i]. It is no surprise that the ratio increased during crises, like World War II, 2008 recession and 2020 pandemic. The real shocker is that both political parties allow it to grow during good times[ii].
Unlike state and local governments, the federal government routinely runs annual budget deficits. The deficit was $1.83 trillion in FY24 and $1.7 trillion in FY23[iii]. In fact, we have had budget deficits every year since FY01, Clinton’s last year in office[iv]. Simply put, this is because we spend more than we collect. Until we rebalance costs and revenues, we will continue to swell the federal debt with our annual budget process what the National Review called “a cynical exercise in symbolism.”
The federal government will spend $6.7 trillion in FY24. Mandatory spending[v], which includes Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, defense, veterans benefits and interest, is the biggest portion and will likely keep growing. Discretionary spending, which is subject to congressional appropriation, includes $850 billion for defense and $950 billion for nondefense[vi]. Four agencies—Health and Human Services, Social Security Administration, Treasury and Defense—account for 80 percent of federal expenditures[vii].
The federal government, which runs 10,000 programs, touches the lives of all Americans. At least 73 million receive retirement, disability, supplemental security or survivor benefits. Medicare has 68 million enrollees and Medicaid has 72 million. Many businesses receive federal funds (including businesses owned by DOGE members). Many communities would not survive without key employers like hospitals receiving at least some federal funds.
Cutting or relocating federal workers alone won’t solve the debt crisis. The number of federal workers, including contractors, has not grown since the early 1990s. The number of civilian employees—2.3 million (excluding postal employees)—has been stable since the late 1960s. Most employees work outside DC. Nearly 60 percent work for departments with strong political constituencies[viii].
Eliminating federal fraud and waste may not be a silver bullet. Some speculate that fraud costs up to $521 billion annually[ix] and payment errors over $190 billion[x]. During the pandemic, there were reports of up to $400 billion in fraud and waste. The waste of overlapping programs and back office systems could contribute billions more to the annual deficit. However, these are merely estimates.
Ultimately, the federal debt is the most serious fiscal threat to the nation’s future. Federal interest costs, which are approaching $900 billion per year, cannot be cut without reducing the debt. Unless we slash the debt, interest costs could double by 2034[xi] and further expand the debt, a vicious circle for sure. Unfortunately, the incoming administration’s proposed policies could increase the national debt by $7.7 trillion over the next ten years[xii] and thereby undermine DOGE’s important work.
Unless we cut the federal debt, our ability to fund domestic entitlements and national security will be crippled. A more progressive income tax structure would help but reducing tax expenditures[xiii]—without restructuring tax rates—could significantly narrow the gap. Total estimated tax expenditures for FY24 are $1.5 trillion or about seven percent of GDP[xiv]. We cannot eliminate the debt by ignoring revenues.
DOGE’s Obligation to the American People
DOGE owes us nothing less than a thorough review of federal agencies. The federal government is indispensable, providing domestic services that the private sector does not (e.g., Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid). Its unparalleled military and fiscal strength underpin our nation’s ability to keep the peace, and enables it to address interstate needs that individual states cannot.
However, federal agencies are anything but cost-effective. They have become debt-addicted, and their programs and processes have become too ineffective and inefficient. The US Congress, regardless of which party has majority status, seems unable (or unwilling) to address the problem. To illustrate, In 2018, Trump's last unified GOP Congress failed to pass any spending cuts[xv], and in 2023, congressional Republicans could not even identify $130 billion in targeted discretionary cuts.
We have a long history of employing advisory bodies like DOGE to improve government efficiency. President Taft’s effort to streamline agencies. President Reagan’s Grace Commission. President Clinton’s National Performance Review. President Obama’s Simpson-Bowles Commission. Today, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and Government Accountability Office (GAO) are great resources. There also are several nonpartisan groups worth following[xvi].
We must find ways to deliver vital federal services more affordably and eradicate the crushing federal debt. DOGE, by conducting a professional appraisal of federal operations, programs, systems, practices, costs, and revenues, it can set the table for meaningful reforms. It also could recommend broad structural and regulatory reforms and develop a long-term plan for eliminating the federal debt.
DOGE’s Formidable Obstacles
There are several constraints on the incoming administration’s ability to implement DOGE’s recommendations. They include the following:
Constitutional – the US Constitution gives Congress, not the President, the power to write laws and fund the government, a power reaffirmed by the Supreme Court in the late 1990s.
Congressional – Congress must approve the elimination, downsizing or relocation of any agencies it creates, the President’s impoundment of congressional allocations and revocation of most regulations (approval will likely require overcoming a Democratic filibuster in the Senate).
Judicial – despite DOGE assumptions to the contrary, the Loper Bright decision appears to constrain agency authority to rescind regulations or change its statutory interpretation of regulations.
Administrative – the Administrative Procedures Act (APA) and other federal laws establish cumbersome, multiyear rule-making process for crafting and rescinding regulations.
Political – since every federal program has constituents, such as retirees, beneficiaries, veterans, contractors, states and communities, cuts to those programs have political repercussions.
Another barrier may be Trump himself. Never a fierce budget hawk, Trump has promised to protect entitlements, a decision that could doom DOGE’s work.
Making Sense of the Viral Madness
DOGE began only weeks ago with high hopes. Calling it the next Manhattan Project, DOGE leaders promised to bring a “chainsaw” to federal spending. Musk pledged to cut $2 trillion but did not specify when. Ramaswamy fantasized about eliminating agencies and contractors[xvii] adding, “we’re solving ... a man-made problem, and when you have a man-made problem, you better … have a man-made solution.” The logic was unclear, but we can assume he was not referring to climate change.
As his surrogates assembled a “team of small-government crusaders,” whatever that means, Musk used X, his social media platform, to bludgeon legislators and share his political flights of fancy. Increasingly, he seems compelled to interfere with important policy matters like the recent debt ceiling crisis. Given his penchant for fast and furious tweeting, Musk acts like he was elected president, not Trump.
Before even commencing work, DOGE leaders have offered a grab bag of untested cost cutting strategies. Defunding programs deemed “unauthorized,” even those with statutory self-authorizing mechanisms[xviii]. Illegally impounding appropriations[xix]. Killing chip production and clean-energy initiatives because they came from Biden. Eliminating agencies, programs and regulations they don’t like. Firing employees. Ending remote work. Ending interest. Terminating daylight-saving time.
The day is young, but the DOGE launch has been inauspicious. The red flags include:
Bloated promises masking vague cost cutting notions (e.g., purging agencies and employees).
A focus on small cuts to the exclusion of more promising prospects (e.g., taxes and entitlements).
A ravenous thirst for grandstanding with little patience for forging long-term reforms.
Despite a Wall Street Journal op-ed pledge to “reverse a decades long executive power grab,” a clear preference for expanding executive power (and weakening constitutional checks and balances).
An obsession with firing employees but little interest in improving programs or rightsizing agencies.
An apparent ignorance of the statutory, multi-year process for repealing regulations.
Worrisome conflicts of interest heightened by a seeming contempt for ethics disclosures.
The nasty, gratuitous demonization and intimidation of federal employees.
Incessant partisan rhetoric that could weaken DOGE’s legitimacy[xx].
A counter-productive habit of using the bully pulpit for bully politics[xxi].
To right the ship, DOGE leaders should consider different tactics such as those below.
Helping DOGE Find Its Footing
To help DOGE (and our elected representatives) restore the federal government’s fiscal health, we offer the following modest suggestions for ensuring its success:
Establish inspiring goals for serving the public interest (e.g., reduce debt and revenue losses, not just costs, improve the cost-effectiveness of vital programs, and develop a long-term fiscal recovery plan).
Clarify criteria for assessing debt reduction opportunities (e.g., deficit reduction potential, economic impact, vital service impact, civic fairness, efficiency and fiscal integrity).
Build a balanced private-public consulting team blending outside experts with idealistic insiders.
Conduct a respectful, professional assessment of federal operations (e.g., build on the work of federal auditors, seek employee input, distinguish fact from fiction, identify program duplication, identify process upgrades, and encourage broad public input).
Build bipartisan consensus (e.g., congressional negotiations for entitlement reforms).
Communicate clearly when there is something to say (and make meetings open and public).
DOGE should do its work more deliberately. Instead of tweeting untested ideas, it should quietly develop a menu of thoughtful reforms (backed by a simple mechanism for rating each deficit reduction opportunity). In an upcoming essay, we will offer some debt reduction ideas worth considering.
Conclusion
Reforming the federal government requires a debate we must have. However, building a case for enduring reform—making vital services more cost-effective and reducing the debt—is much harder than tweeting about shrinking government. Still, if DOGE can help the US restore its fiscal health, serve its citizens more efficiently and fortify its status as the free world’s leader, we need it to succeed.
Musk and Ramaswamy have called DOGE “a historic opportunity for structural reductions in the federal government.” Unfortunately, their grandstanding has inspired more eye rolling than confidence. DOGE’s mission is far too important to be hijacked by amateurs whose egos dwarf the nation’s interests. Instead of allowing DOGE to descend into a noisy vanity project, let’s make it work for all of us.
Another edifying and humbling post. Another reminder of Pogo's wise observation, 'We've met the enemy and he is us". The chaos ahead is among the many Exhibit A's.
Thanks for the really good work here Bob. Keep the faith friend.